📉 How Bad Is the Upcoming Recession? And What Should I Do as a Job Seeker?

The recession is on many people’s minds.

In this newsletter, I’ll address what’s going on with the economy. I’ll also discuss how to approach the recession as a job seeker. You’ll find the tips helpful if you’re looking for a new job now or if you plan to look for one in the next 2 years.

Yes, the economic slowdown is real, but job seekers won’t feel the worst of it for a while 

If your stock portfolio is hurting, you’re not alone.

Wall Street and stock markets around the world are on edge. It’s not hard to find blue chip companies that have fallen more than 50% from their all-time highs.

But the worst is hardly here.

Consumers trapped by the COVID pandemic are celebrating their freedom this summer by traveling abroad and taking well-deserved vacations.

Employers may be preparing for a recession, but many are still hiring. And some industries, like travel, are still struggling to meet the demand that piled up during the pandemic.

In short, both consumers and businesses are spending a lot of money right now.

Stock markets have crashed in 2022, but we shouldn’t be surprised if layoffs don’t feel bad right now.

This is similar to the patterns of previous recessions:

• 2008 Financial Crisis. Markets started to collapse in early 2007, but the unemployment rate didn’t get bad until 2009, 2010.

• Dot-Com Bubble. Markets started to crash in early 2000, but the unemployment rate didn’t get bad until 2002, 2003.

Long story short, for job seekers, the market’s collapse isn’t the problem.

The real problem is the stock market crash + 1 year and even crash + 2 years.

In our current timeline, that means 2023 and 2024 will be the worst years for job seekers.

What you should do now

If you plan to change jobs in the next 18 to 24 months, accelerate your timeline. Start your job search now.

Hiring is still robust, despite the slowdown. The labor shortage is still here; the unemployment rate remains as low as it’s ever been.

If you’re burnt out, you can still take a vacation.

However, economic conditions are changing rapidly. If you’re serious about finding a new job, start before early September. Many people will be looking for jobs when they return from their summer vacation.

I’d rather not compete with them.

What job seekers need to do differently

Competition for jobs will intensify in the fall. Here’s what you need to do.

Practice, practice, practice

Companies have cut back on job postings. That means job seekers will have fewer interviews than usual.

Thus, you need to make the most of the opportunities that come your way. Practice interviews with a friend or mentor. If you don’t have a friend who can help you practice, find a practice partner. For the most coveted jobs, successful candidates routinely conduct more than 30 practice interviews.

Networking is key

On the one hand, some companies have cut back on staffing, including imposing a hiring freeze or laying off employees. On the other hand, other companies claim that their business is going well and that they’re hiring as usual.

In other words, the messages seem to vary from company to company and department to department. In short, you need an insider at your target company who can tell you what the hiring situation is really like at their company. With their help, you can also get in touch with hiring managers directly and practice interviews.

Long story short, networking is not optional. Applicants who network well will receive early notice of available positions and the support they need to turn their opportunities into job offers.

Here’s a spreadsheet to organize your networking activity, based on the book 2-Hour Job Search by Steve Dalton.

Build your resume

Fewer interview opportunities can feel bad. More time waiting for a call from the recruiter; lots of time worrying about the future.

Find ways to use that waiting time productively. Gain experience that you’re missing. For example:

• If you lack experience as an actor, write a short film, find a colleague to film it, and edit the final product.

• If you’re a salesperson who lacks results, find a job with 100% sales commission and show the world that you can sell.

• If you’re a product manager trying to break into the field, build your own iPhone app and show the world you have the product and technical skills to succeed.

Don’t forget to check out my new books

Earlier this year, I released a new 4th edition of Decode and Conquer. If you haven’t read it yet, don’t miss this book that readers are raving about:

• I got a product manager offer from Google / YouTube. All this would not have been possible without your wonderful training…especially Decode & Conquer, my first guide for PM interview prep.

• Omg! Lewis Lin you don’t know how much I owe you. My dream of becoming a product manager became true and was aided by you. I can thank enough for how your book, Decode and Conquer, helped.

• I complained that “nobody can prep for PM interviews.” Well, I’ve learned that you CAN prep and practice. I worked my way through Decode & Conquer and The Product Manager Interview. I have now received top-of-the-line offers from Google, Facebook, and Walmart Labs.

And for those of you getting ready for technical interviews, check out my newer book, The System Design Interview. Here’s what readers have to say about this book and the groundbreaking PEDALS method™:

• I can’t thank you enough for publishing this book! This is the best & most practical book I’ve read on system architecture, even for non-technical folks like me… I’ve recommended this book to so many people.

• I bought Lewis Lin’s system design book, and it provides a  great structure for non-technical folks to get crisp on what/how to structure your thinking [for system design interviews.

• The PEDALS method is such a brilliant idea and consolidation of the system design process. PEDALS is to system design what STAR is to behavioral questions. Thank you for writing a great book.

Bonus opportunity for managers

I run another company, ManageBetter. We develop software that helps managers work more efficiently and grow their teams.

Having recently launched our career planning software ActionPlan, we’d like you to join our early access beta program. If you are a leader who would like to create career plans for your team, simply reply to this email and we will contact you.